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"Eight centuries of global real rates, R-G, and the 'suprasecular' decline, 1311-2022":

•  Bank of England SWP, January 2020.
•  Data (January 2020, version 1.2).
•  JMP version (Feb. 2023). Appendix and replication kit.
•  book version forthcoming (2025), Yale University Press.

• "Long-Run Trends in Long-Maturity Real Rates, 1311-2022" (with Kenneth S. Rogoff and Barbara Rossi),  forthcoming at American Economic Review.

• "Banking-Crisis Interventions, 1257-2019" (with Andrew Metrick), Full paper. Full "Metrick-Schmelzing database" and documentation (Sep. 2021). (Summary: NBER WP 29281).
  • NEW: an application to SVB/CS, March 2023.

• "The Safety Net: Central Bank Balance Sheets and Financial Crises, 1587-2020" (with Niall Ferguson, Martin Kornejew and Moritz Schularick), Jan 2023 -- CEPR DP 17858. Ungated: Hoover WP 23102.

• Current:
  • Assistant Professor of Finance, Boston College (2022-)
  • Research Fellow, Hoover Institution, Stanford (2022-)
  • International Monetary Fund, consultant, Fiscal Affairs dept (Sep 2023-)
• Previous:
  • postdoctoral research associate, Yale School of Management (2019-2022)
  • Harvard University, PhD, History (2013-2019)
  • Visiting researcher, Bank of England (2016-2023)
  • Hoover Institution, Stanford University, Visiting Fellow (2017-2019)
  • Research assistant, Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff (2015-2016)
  • London School of Economics, B.Sc., Economic History (2010-2013)

In the news:

• "What eight centuries of data tell us about interest rates", Financial Times, 11 April 2024.
• "A Banking Crisis may be closer than you think", Barron's, 22 February 2024.
• "Treasury Trove", GAM Investments, 11 February 2024.
• "Paul Schmelzing on real interest rates since 1310", Brad deLong's Grasping Reality, 11 February 2024.
• "The future of interest rates is more surprises", Reuters Viewpoint, 24 November 2023.
• "700 år av ränta avslöjar – så blir din framtida boränta", Dagens Nyhether, 10 November 2023. 
• "Law of Unintended Consequences Caused the Great Bond Rout", 9 October 2023.
• "Global economy -- negative interest rates", Bloomberg News, 15 September 2023.
• "The End of Zero Interest Rates", Jeff Frankel for Project Syndicate, 13 August 2023.
• "Investing to preserve purchasing power", Allianz Global Investors, July 2023.
• "A Triumvirate of Macro Mega-Forces", Alliance Bernstein, Summer 2023.
• "Russia's Farcical Mutiny is Deadly Serious for China, Iran", Bloomberg Opinion, 2 July 2023.
• "Low Interest Rates Will Return -- Again and Again", Bloomberg / Wash Post, 30 May 2023.
• "SVB and First Republic are just the first of many banks to fail...", Marketwatch, 4 May 2023.
• "The tweet and the trust collapse", Risk.net, 1 May 2023.
• "The 2023 SVB interventions in long-run context", Harvard Law Corporate Governance Forum, 17 April 2023.
• "Researchers analyzed 800 years of banking crises...", Marketwatch, 28 March 2023.
• "Things are only getting harder for the Fed", Financial Times, 16 March 2023.
• "The Great Inflation", BBC Four, 15 March 2023.
• "Forward Thinking on Deep History...", McKinsey Global Institute, 15 February 2023.
• "Geldpolitik in Krisenzeiten: Zentralbanken als Helfer" (German), Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, 7 February 2023.
• "Wie die Geldpolitik den Krisenzyklus steuert" (German), Handelsblatt, 6 February 2023.
• "The Squeeze: Why AI and nuclear fusion will increase interest rates", Investors' Chronicle, 19 January 2023.
• "Il Paradosso Dei Tassi" (Italian), We Wealth, 18 January 2023.
• "Zinsen, Pest und Pleiten" (German), Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, 23 December 2022.
• "The Great Inflation of the 1500s is Echoing Eerily Today", The Economist, 20 December 2022.
• "Too much Gloom and Doom?", Willem Buiter via Project Syndicate, 12 December 2022.
• "The Real Interest Decline in Long Historical Perspective", NBER Digest, 1 December 2022.
• "How Cold War II Could Turn Into World War III", Bloomberg Opinion, 23 October 2022.
• "Higher interest rates wouldn't shock, forsooth", Financial Post, 20 October 2022.
• "Since 1311 bond yields have fallen with metronomic regularity", The Economist, 6 October 2022.
• "Lessons from Real Interest Rates since the 14th Century", Financial History Magazine (Interview), Summer 2022.
• "Auf der Suche nach dem verlorenen Zins" (German), Thomas Mayer for Flossbach Storch Research, 20 July 2022.
• "Welche Zinswende? Die Zinsen sinken seit Jahrhunderten..." (German), Die Presse, 13 May 2022.
• "The 800 year decline in interest rates", Narratives Podcast, 19 April 2022.
• "Die unterschaetzte Zeitenwende" (German), Think Beyond the Obvious Podcast, 10 April 2022.
• "Rara, wat zegt de rente?" (Dutch), Financieele Dagblad, 21 February 2022.
• "Nie wieder Zinsen?" (German), Think Beyond the Obvious Podcast, 13 February 2022.
• "After Crypto's Cold Winter, expect Springtime for Web 3.0", Bloomberg Opinion, 6 February 2022.
• "Inflation and Deficits don't Dim the Appeal of U.S. Bonds", New York Times, 30 January 2022.
• "Bereit fuer Krise 903?" (German), Institutional Money, 30 November 2021.
• "The Stagnation Era", Investors' Chronicle, 25 November 2021.
• "Paul Schmelzing on the long-term decline in interest rates", KC&CO Investing Podcast, 23 November 2021.
• "Interest rates could stay low forever, asset manager says", CNBC, 15 November 2021.
• "We are already living in the Post-Scarcity World", Coindesk Opinion, 27 October 2021.
• "Banking-Crisis Interventions, 1257-2019", Harvard Law School Corporate Gov. Forum, 12 October 2021.
• "Bleibt der Inflationsteufel sehr viel laenger am Leben?" (German), Frankfurter Allgemeine, 1 October 2021.
• "Interest rates and purchasing power influence the value...", Credit Suisse, 16 September 2021.
• "Interest rates: a podcast", EABH (interview), 7 September 2021.
• "Some philosophical questions about the future of central banking", Central Banking, 1 September 2021.
• "Le succès des politiques fiscales en réponse au Covid-19 montre qu'il faut..." (French), Atlantico, 9 August 2021.
• "Juro baixo a perder de vista", Estadao (Brazil), 7 June 2021.
• "Ces États qui aiment les taux d’intérêt négatifs" (French), Contrepoints, 8 May 2021.
• "CIO Viewpoint: rising rates - should we be worried?", CIGP, 30 March 2021.
• "Inflation in the aftermath of Wars and Pandemics", Goldman Sachs Research, 25 March 2021.
• "800 ans d’histoire nous apprennent que les taux d’intérêt bas..." (French), Atlantico, 22 March 2021.
• "Mundo vive maior vaga de estímulos em 100 anos" (Portuguese), Expresso, 14 March 2021.
• "16th century traders could have predicted negative rates", Bloomberg Opinion (interview), 13 March 2021.
• "Negativzinsen: macht Euch nichts vor!" (German), Focus Online, 13 March 2021.
• "Hasta La Vista, Baby", Oppenheimer Asset Management, 25 February 2021.
• "Angles morts du débat sur la dette publique" (French), L'Opinion, 24 February 2021.
• "700 years of Falling Interest Rates", Moncrieff Show, Newstalk (radio interview), 17 February 2021.
• "Anleihen mit negativer Rendite lohnen sich" (German), Wirtschaftswoche, 2 February 2021.
• "Why economics needs to wake up to ageing populations", Financial Times, 2 December 2020.
• "Return of a higher yield era?", Barclays Capital, 19 November 2020.
• "Moments in money: the first interest rates", Spear's Magazine, 18 November 2020.
• "Does economic growth boost stock prices?", The Economist, 24 September 2020.
• "Negative interest rates are becoming the new normal", Brussels Times, 23 July 2020.
• "Money is getting ever cheaper" (Polish), Prawda Gazeta, 10 July 2020.
• "The effects of Covid-19 could deepen secular stagnation", Financial Times, 31 May 2020.
• "What 700 years of falling interest rates tell us about our economic future", New Statesman, 21 May 2020.
• "Inflation: Rates will remain low after the Recession", Credit Suisse, 20 May 2020.
• "Kann Deutschland jetzt hohe Schulden machen?" (German), IfW Kiel Focus, 11 May 2020.
• "Pandemics always influenced interest rates", Gulf News, 25 April 2020.
• "If COVID-19 is Like Past Pandemics, We Could Face Decades of Economic Fallout", Forbes, 16 April 2020.
• "Past pandemics had lasting effects on rates, U.S. study says", The Globe and Mail, 13 April 2020.
• "Die Ökonomie des Todes" (German), Sueddeutsche Zeitung, 10 April 2020.
• "The world was already slowing down long before lockdown", The Telegraph, 3 April 2020.
• "Black Death Makes Us Think About Interest Rates", Bloomberg Opinion, 28 March 2020.
• "Schicksalhafter Nullzins" (German), Institutional Money, March 2020.
• "Kann Deutschland jetzt massiv Schulden machen?" (German), Sueddeutsche Zeitung, 24 March 2020.
• "History tells us Coronavirus effect will be short and sharp", The Telegraph, 17 March 2020.
• "Paul Schmelzing on the 'suprasecular' decline of global real interest rates", Macro Musings podcast (Mercatus Center), 24 February 2020.
• "Finance, Bubbles, Negative Interest Rates, the What Ifs...", CFA Institute, 24 February 2020.
• "Are negative interest rates here to stay?", International Banker, 19 Feburary 2020.
• "Negativzinsen als Normalitaet" (German), Cicero Magazin, 17 February 2020.
• "Suprasecularly speaking...", Rothschild & Co. Wealth, 29 January 2020.
• "Les taux d'interet baissent...depuis un demi-millenaire" (French), Les Echos, 28 January 2020.
• "Al 500 jaar op weg naar rente van 0 prozent" (Interview, Dutch), De Volkskrant, 24 January 2020.
• "Der Zins sinkt schon seit dem Mittelalter", (Interview, German), Die ZEIT, 22 January 2020.
• "What interest rates dating back to 1311 reveal about the global economy", Quartz, 19 January 2020.
• "Negativzinsen sind unausweichliche Konsequenz der Geschichte", (Interview, German), FOCUS, 16 January 2020.
• "700 års erfarenhet: Därför kommer räntorna falla ännu mer" (Swedish), Dagens Industri, 14 January 2020.
• "Bond data back to the Black Death shows low rates could be here to stay", CNBC, 14 January 2020.
• "Past Interest Rates and Future Growth", Project Syndicate, 13 January 2020.
• "Capital in the 14th century", The Economist, 9 January 2020.
• "Against secular stagnation", FT Alphaville, 8 January 2020.
• "Eight centuries of history tell us interest rates will get lower and lower forever", The Telegraph, 8 January 2020.
• "Rates have been falling for eight centuries – BoE research", Central Banking, 6 January 2020.
• "Zwei Prozent Negativzinsen könnten in Zukunft zur Normalität werden" (German), Welt am Sonntag, 5 January 2020.
• "Negative Interest Rates aren't such a Departure After All", Bloomberg Opinion, 2 January 2020.
• "Claims about real rates of return", Marginal Revolution, 6 December 2019.
• "Global bond bull run has reached historic levels", Financial Times, 8 September 2019.
• "The suprasecular stagnation", Brad DeLong: Grasping Reality, 5 February 2019.
• "A 500 year bull market shows its age", Grant's Interest Rate Observer, 25 January 2019.
• "Here's what happened the last time the bond market crashed", Money Week, 10 November 2018.
• "The 'suprasecular' stagnation", VoxEU, 24 May 2018.
• "Gradually rising interest rates? Don't be too sure", Schroders blog, 28 March 2018.
• "Medieval wisdom on when to start worrying about the bond market", Bloomberg View, 24 January 2018.
• Daily shot, Wall Street Journal, 21 December 2017.
• "The Trump bear market for bonds is fast arriving", Financial Times, 4 December 2017.
• "PIMCO: thoughts on global macro by Joachim Fels", 20 November 2017.
• "Where are interest rates headed?", National Business Review, 17 November 2017.
• "7 centuries of interest rates: there is a warning for investors in this chart", Marketwatch, 10 November 2017.
• "Centuries of data warn of rapid reversals from low interest rates", Bloomberg, 7 November 2017.
• "Real rates since 1311", Wall Street Journal 'Pro', 6 November 2017.
• "Bond markets set for a taste of the 60s as inflation picks up", Reuters, 30 January 2017.
• "How the world's biggest bond bull market could all come crashing down", Bloomberg Odd Lots podcast, 17 January 2017.
• "Schmelzing: perfect storm can quickly turn bond market", Bloomberg TV, 12 January 2017.
• "Schmelzing on bonds: why investors face years of losses", Bloomberg TV, 10 January 2017.
• "The Market Warnings Out Of Harvard", Barron's, 4 January 2017.
• "Harvard academic sees debt rout worse than 1994 'bond massacre", Bloomberg, 4 January 2017.