Will Florida matter in the 2020 presidential primary?

The Democratic candidates are descending on Florida this week, but the state may not play a significant role early next year.

Florida has been a pivotal battleground in recent presidential election cycles and will be again this year, with President Donald Trump unlikely to win a second term if he does not win the state.

But that’s the general election.

Florida’s significance in presidential primary contests is less assured.

The Democratic presidential candidates descend on Florida for their first debate this week, but what role the state will play in selecting the nominee won’t be known for months.

This may be the most attention Florida gets during the primary cycle if the contest is essentially over by the time Floridians vote, or it could be the prelude to a big Sunshine State showdown in March.

Florida has been influential in each of the last three GOP presidential primaries, partly because state lawmakers moved the primary date up in 2008 and 2012 in a bid to boost the state's clout. Having two Floridians — U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio and former Gov. Jeb Bush — running for president in 2016 also brought attention to the state during that primary race, and Rubio made his last stand in Florida.

The state also had a competitive primary on the Democratic side in 2016, with both Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders campaigning here. But there's no guarantee the 2020 Democratic contest will still be in full swing when Florida votes.

"Florida's potential for influence in the 2020 nomination process is certainly less than it was four years ago when a couple of favorite son candidates were running or eight or 12 years ago when the Legislature and the Presidential Preference Primary Date Selection Committee opted to break the national party rules, thrusting the Sunshine state primary into January," said Josh Putnam, a lecturer at the University of North Carolina Wilmington who writes the FrontloadingHQ blog. "But just because the potential is less does not mean that Florida cannot or will not be relevant to the resolution of the Democratic presidential nomination race. Much obviously depends on the steps in the sequence leading up to the Florida primary."

Florida’s primary will be held March 17, six weeks after the first voters caucus in Iowa on Feb. 3. The state's primary falls in the middle of the nominating calendar, but far enough back that the states with earlier contests could effectively decide the race before it gets to Florida, or set it on a course that Florida voters are unlikely to alter. On the other hand, Florida’s primary could be decisive if the race is still competitive.

Florida had a similar primary date in 2016 and both the Democratic and GOP nominating contests were still active when the state voted. Florida voters had a say in selecting both nominees.

Because there is such a large field of Democratic candidates this year, some experts believe it will take time to winnow. They expect a drawn out primary contest, something that also is more likely because Democrats award delegates proportionally, allowing candidates to stay in the game, even if they don’t win a state. There is even talk of a brokered convention.

But there are some changes to the primary calendar that could cull the candidate field before Florida votes, and diminish the state’s importance this cycle.

Florida competitive in 2016

Florida’s 2016 presidential primary was held on March 15.

By the time state residents voted, both Trump and Hillary Clinton had built momentum with early victories and were the clear frontrunners, but they hadn’t locked anything up. Winning Florida boosted both of the eventual nominees and, in the GOP race, helped winnow the field.

Trump’s victory in Florida was the final blow for Rubio. The Florida win — combined with a number of other wins on the same day — also gave Trump a big delegate advantage that the president never surrendered.

Meanwhile, Clinton cruised to victory over Sanders in Florida and added to the momentum she already had established after a string of southern primary wins.

Florida was relevant in both races. The state also received plenty of attention during the 2016 presidential primary process because of Rubio and Bush.

In fact, Florida's current March 17 primary date is a legacy of those campaigns. State lawmakers moved Florida's primary to the beginning of the winner-take-all series of GOP primary contests in the hopes that a Florida candidate would be more likely to win the state and benefit from a winner-take-all scenario.

That didn't happen, although the state still ended up being influential.

But every primary contest plays out differently and there is no guarantee that Florida will have a big role in a 2020 Democratic contest. A candidate could consolidate support before Florida votes, with some political observers arguing that changes in the primary calendar make that more likely.

California — a heavily Democratic super state — now votes before Florida and could help narrow the field. Ohio and North Carolina — two other large states — also will vote before Florida.

There will be two sets of Super Tuesday contests — California, North Carolina and a number of other states vote March 3, while Ohio and Michigan are among a group of states voting March 10 — next year that will occur before Florida’s primary and could knock out candidates who are still standing after the four early states vote.

Florida has flirted with an earlier primary date with mixed results. The GOP-controlled Legislature moved Florida’s 2008 primary up to Jan. 29 to try to make the state more influential in the process.

Former U.S. Sen. John McCain won Florida’s GOP presidential primary in 2008 after receiving a late endorsement from former Gov. Charlie Crist. McCain’s Florida win, which came on the heels of winning South Carolina, helped him build momentum for a strong showing on Super Tuesday that sealed his nomination.

But Florida was ignored by the Democratic candidates in 2008 after the Democratic National Committee stripped the state of its delegates — and asked the candidates not to campaign here — as a penalty for moving the primary up so early in the calendar.

Florida lawmakers kept the early primary date in 2012 and the state again played an important role in the GOP nominating contest. After losing South Carolina to Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney rebounded with a big win in Florida and went on to secure the nomination.

Florida could "seal the deal"

University of South Florida political science professor emeritus Susan MacManus believes the state is still likely to play a key role in picking the Democratic presidential nominee next year.

With more than 20 candidates on the Democratic side, MacManus said it will take time to narrow the field. She predicts the nominating contest will be a prolonged one. If that happens, Florida could “seal the deal,” MacManus said.

“There’s so many candidates and there’s just no consensus,” MacManus said.

Putnam has argued that California’s move to earlier on the primary calendar may not be as decisive as some have speculated.

“Absent that clear frontrunner running away with the nomination... the 2020 race is unlikely to see the race run its course by early March,” he wrote on his blog. “That is even more true in light of the fact that the field of Democrats seeking the nomination looks like it will be quite large. There will be some winnowing in February, but it remains to be seen just how much the field will have shrunk by a Super Tuesday that includes California. There are and will be too many moving parts shifting between now and that point in the cycle.”

The GOP also had a large field of candidates in 2016. Most were gone by the time Floridians voted, but Trump, Rubio, U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz and former Ohio Gov. John Kasich were still in the race.

Florida Gulf Coast University political science professor Peter Bergerson believes Florida may be less relevant in the 2020 presidential primary than in 2016.

“My guess is that Florida is going to be an afterthought almost,” Bergerson said.

Bergerson noted that campaigning in California requires an extensive paid media effort, which will be extremely expensive.

Candidates who invest in the California primary — and other early primaries — and lose will struggle to raise money and continue to Florida.

“What happens is people are going to run out of money,” Bergerson said. “The early poll, the one that makes a big difference is the money poll. If people are willing to put money behind the candidate that’s one of the things to look for.”

Of course, money is one reason why the candidates always will take an interest in Florida. As a big state with a lot of wealthy donors, the Democrats will spend plenty of time here trying to raise money.

“Even if you don’t expect to win here you can raise money here and that’s another factor,” MacManus said. “They’re going to come here and try to reach niche audiences and raise money from those groups and hope their campaigns catch fire.”

If the race is still competitive by the time Floridians vote, candidates who are better known and better financed will have an advantage. Like California, Florida is a big state and reaching voters here is expensive.

Former Vice President Joe Biden has been leading in the early Florida polls and has the advantage of strong name recognition.

Biden also fits the profile of the type of moderate candidate Florida Democrats traditionally have supported. But last year Democrats nominated progressive firebrand Andrew Gillum for governor, showing there may be an opening for some of the more liberal presidential candidates if they can build momentum in earlier primary contests.

“I think with Florida’s racial and ethnic diversity some of the progressives might catch fire and give Biden a more competitive race than he might have had,” MacManus said.